Climate niche modelling for mapping potential distributions of four framework tree species: Implications for planning forest restoration in Tropical and Subtropical Asia

ABSTRACT: Selecting tree species to plant for forest ecosystem restoration is critical but problematic. Knowing tree species’ climatic niches can help, but such information is limited for most tropical tree species. Consequently, the research presented here explored the use of climate and species record location data, to map the potential distribution of four tree species across tropical and subtropical Asia based on their modelled climatic niches. All were framework species, of proven effectiveness for forest restoration: Choerospondias axillaris (Roxb.) B.L. Burtt and A.W. Hill, Ficus hispida L.f., Hovenia dulcis Thunb., and Prunus cerasoides Buch.-Ham. ex D. Don. Potential species distributions were projected onto maps of known climatic conditions using the maximum entropy algorithm in Maxent software to predict where the climate is conducive for including each species in forest restoration trials. The models predicted species location very well for F. hispida and H. dulcis and fairly well for P. cerasoides and C. axillaris. Climatically suitable areas for C. axillaris were located mostly north of the equator, whilst those of F. hispida, H. dulcis and P. cerasoides extended south of the equator. The importance of each climatic niche variable differed among species. Driest-month precipitation was critical for F. hispida, as well as mean dry-season temperature for C. axillaris and P. cerasoides and cold-season precipitation for H. dulcis. In addition to aiding species selection for forest restoration, potential distribution maps based on climatic niche models can indicate where novel species for tree plantations might be successful and where species might become invasive. Applying such techniques to a large number of species will be needed to significantly improve species selection for forest ecosystem restoration.