Financial analysis of potential carbon value over 14 years of forest restoration using the framework species method

Abstract: The carbon storage value of forest restoration, by the framework species method (FSM) in northern Thailand, was assessed for trees (using a partial harvesting technique) and soil and compared with restoration costs. Forest carbon accumulation amounted to 143.08 tC/ha in trees and 8.56 tC/ha in soil over 14 years, with a combined value of USD 27,173.63 (net present value (NPV), discounted at 2.85%/y)) (at the current European carbon credit (EUA) price of 55.98 EUR/tCO2 = 242.21 USD/tC). Restoration costs increased from 2190.27 to 5680.72 USD/ha with declining pre-existing natural regeneration or 3.99–10.34 USD per ton of sequestered CO2. Profits over 14 years ranged in NPV from 22,215.45 to 25,157.04 USD/ha, breaking even from just over 4 years to just under 7, respectively. In contrast, profits from maize cultivation (a major regional deforestation driver) averaged 96.25 USD/ha/y, or just 1347.53 USD/ha over 14 years. Consequently, forest restoration could become a financially attractive alternative land use, provided an open, transparent, carbon market is created. Therefore, this study supports creation of a forest-carbon trading system in Thailand, to incentivize forest restoration and fire prevention, increase farmers’ incomes, reduce smoke-related public health problems, protect watersheds, and conserve biodiversity.